UN to vote on Palestinian status

29 November 2012 Last updated at 14:28 GMT Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has been urged not to ask for the UN status upgrade The UN General Assembly is set to vote on upgrading the Palestinian status from observer entity to observer state.

Palestinians say the bid, which would give it the same "non-member state" status as the Vatican, is an attempt to rescue the Middle East peace process.

Analysts say the application is likely to win approval in the 193-member body when it is put to a vote, because it needs only a simple majority to pass.

The bid is strongly opposed by Israel and the US. The UK may abstain.

According to the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), more than 130 countries now grant the Palestinians the rank of a sovereign state.

They chose the "International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People" for the vote, which is set to take place at 21:00 GMT and will be preceded by a number of speeches focusing on the rights of the Palestinians.

European Union 'split'

The Palestinians are seeking UN recognition of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, the lands Israel captured in 1967

Continue reading the main story Jon Donnison BBC News, Ramallah

The turnout for a mass rally in Ramallah's Clock Square is poor. The bunting's up, a stage has been erected but most of the chairs are empty. After a troupe of Palestinian dabka dancers took to the stage to provide a brief moment of entertainment, a crowd of a few hundred people drifted away.

It will be a long day and night with the UN vote not expected until around midnight local time. Mr Abbas is coming at this from a position of weakness. He has been much criticised by many Palestinians for remaining on the sidelines of this month's war in Gaza and efforts to achieve a ceasefire.

But Gaza has put the Palestinians back in the news after the world attention ahs been focused elsewhere in the Middle East for much of the last two years..

Mr Abbas will want to capitalise on what will be an inevitable success at the UN, but he may need more than that to boost his diminished reputation.

Opponents of the bid say a Palestinian state should emerge only out of bilateral negotiations.

Israel and the US say the Palestinians are trying to seek full statehood via the UN, rather than through negotiation as set out in the 1993 Oslo peace accords under which the Palestinian Authority was established.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "The decision at the United Nations will change nothing on the ground.

"It will not advance the establishment of a Palestinian state. It will delay it further."

The Palestinians say the move is not meant to replace negotiations but improve their leverage and define the territory they want for a state, which has been eroded by Israeli settlement building.

"It is a very important step in trying to save the two-state solution, maybe last time to save the two-state solution," said Palestinian ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour.

France, Spain and Norway are among those urging the General Assembly to raise the Palestinians' UN status. Germany is set to abstain.

Strong European support would strengthen the diplomatic clout of the bid, says the BBC's Barbara Plett in New York: the European Union is split but so far more than a dozen countries have said they will vote in favour.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has said the UK will back the resolution, but only after receiving a number of assurances, principally that the Palestinians would seek negotiations with Israel "without pre-conditions".

He told parliament on Wednesday that the Palestinians must also agree not to seek membership of International Criminal Court (ICC), as any move to extend the jurisdiction of the court over the occupied territories could derail any chance of talks resuming.

Continue reading the main story Palestinians currently have permanent observer entity status at the UNThey are represented by the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO)PLO officials now want an upgrade so that a state of Palestine has full member status at the UNThey seek recognition on 1967 boundaries - in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and GazaEnhanced observer member status could be an interim option"However, in the absence of these assurances, the UK would abstain on the vote," he said.

"This would be consistent with our strong support for the principle of Palestinian statehood, but our strong concern that the resolution could set the peace process back."

Palestinian diplomats said they had rejected the "unrealistic" demands.

Entering peace talks without any strings attached meant abandoning the key demand that the construction of settlements on the West Bank must be frozen, Palestinian ambassador to the UK Manuel Hassassian told the BBC.

The request not to join the ICC was "absolutely unworkable", he added.

Change in tone?

While the move is seen as a symbolic milestone in Palestinian ambitions for statehood, a "Yes" vote would also have a practical diplomatic effect, adds our UN correspondent:

Continue reading the main story Nations in favour of or likely to support the bid: France, Spain, Norway, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Turkey, China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, NigeriaNations against or likely to oppose the bid: Israel, USNations set to abstain: UK (needs assurances that the Palestinians would seek negotiations with Israel "without pre-conditions"), Germany, Australia, Belgium, ColombiaIt would allow the Palestinians to participate in debates at the UN and improve their chances of joining UN agencies and bodies like the ICC.

Last year Mr Abbas applied for full UN membership, but that got bogged down at the Security Council amidst US opposition, she says.

The US and especially Israel had suggested the Palestinians would suffer financial sanctions for this lesser upgrade, although Israel seems to have moderated its tone. Officials now say they will wait to see how the Palestinians use their new status.

As senior US diplomats travelled to New York on Wednesday in a last-bid attempt to get Mr Abbas to reconsider, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated the US position that the Palestinian move was misguided.

"The path to a two-state solution that fulfils the aspirations of the Palestinian people is through Jerusalem and Ramallah, not New York," she said. "The only way to get a lasting solution is to commence direct negotiations."

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Palestinian UN status vote more than symbolic?

29 November 2012 Last updated at 10:37 GMT Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian application for full UN membership faced US opposition last year The UN General Assembly is set to upgrade the Palestinians' status to that of "non-member observer state". The BBC's Barbara Plett at the UN headquarters in New York asks whether the move is more than symbolic.

With Hamas claiming a victory for its military strategy during this month's eight-day conflict with Israel in Gaza, the Palestinian president is hoping for a diplomatic victory at the United Nations.

It is the second time around - last year Mahmoud Abbas applied for full UN membership, but that got bogged down at the Security Council amid opposition from the United States.

This time he is asking the General Assembly for a lesser upgrade, from "observer" to "non-member observer" state, like the Vatican.

This is a largely symbolic move. But the Palestinian leadership argues that at least it will define the territory it wants for a state, which is being eroded by aggressive Israeli settlement building, and grant it formal recognition.

The Palestinian UN Ambassador Riyad Mansour described the move as "a very important step to save the two-state solution".

Raised stakes

There is no doubt the Palestinian Authority has enough support to win the vote, because of strong sympathy from the post-colonial nations which dominate the General Assembly.

But it faces significant opposition from Israel and its powerful US ally - they say a Palestinian state should emerge only out of direct negotiations, without reference to the UN.

The Israelis have branded the move a violation of the Oslo Peace Accords, which charts a bilateral route to peace, and the Americans fear the bid will severely complicate any attempt to return to peace talks despite Palestinian vows to do just that.

Continue reading the main story Nations in favour of or likely to support the bid: France, Spain, Norway, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark, Turkey, China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, NigeriaNations against or likely to oppose the bid: Israel, USNations set to abstain: UK (needs assurances that the Palestinians would seek negotiations with Israel "without pre-conditions"), Germany, Australia, Belgium, ColombiaPerhaps the greater fear is that the Palestinians will use their new status as observer state to join the International Criminal Court and try to prosecute Israel for alleged war crimes in the Occupied Territories.

Alongside the US, European countries, especially the UK, have been pressing the Palestinian Authority for assurances that it will not take this path.

The PA has made clear this approach will not be its priority but has so far refused to relinquish the option.

It would have been difficult for Mr Abbas to make such a concession to the West under any circumstances, but events back home have raised the stakes.

Hamas has gained in Palestinian eyes by confronting Israel (and its Western backers) in the recent Gaza offensive aimed at stopping Palestinian rocket-fire - and not losing. It even achieved some dividends.

Arab foreign ministers flocked to Gaza to demonstrate solidarity, while Egypt mediated a ceasefire that included provisions to ease Israel's blockade of Gaza.

Meanwhile, Mahmoud Abbas remained side-lined in Ramallah, with nothing to show for his moderate policies.

But the Arabs insist their support for the Palestinian president and his UN bid is just as strong, and they stand ready to provide him with material help should he need it.

That "includes financial and economic assistance to mitigate any negative economic effects of the decision", said Egypt's UN ambassador Mootaz Ahmadein Khalil, noting Israeli and US threats to cut finances to the PA.

Reality on the ground

Israeli foreign ministry documents had warned that Israel might go further by nullifying the Oslo Accords - they even suggested toppling Mr Abbas.

Continue reading the main story Palestinians currently have permanent observer entity status at the UNThey are represented by the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO)PLO officials now want an upgrade so that a state of Palestine has full member status at the UNThey seek recognition on 1967 boundaries - in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and GazaEnhanced observer member status could be an interim optionBut as the vote approaches Israel has moderated its tone - officials now say they'll wait to see how the Palestinians use their new status.

"If they use this resolution as a platform for confrontation, we will have to act accordingly," a spokeswoman told the French news agency AFP.

Strong European support could also help temper reactions. It would certainly strengthen the diplomatic clout of the bid.

The European Union is split but so far more than a dozen countries have said they will vote yes, some partly motivated by the desire to give Mr Abbas a diplomatic achievement to counter the rise of Hamas.

He will need more than that.

Regardless of what the Palestinian president achieves on paper at the UN, when the celebrations are over he will have to revise a political strategy that has so far failed to translate the Palestinian dream of statehood into a reality on the ground.

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